November 2018


With live (linear) television viewing being supplemented and even replaced by OTT and Video On Demand, Digital TV Research has released its forecast for the Global Subscription based Video On Demand (SVoD) market.

The Global SVoD Forecasts report provides detailed forecasts for 694 platforms across 138 countries, covering movie and TV episode subscriptions, but not other services such as dedicated sports platforms. The figures are for paying subscriptions only and do not include free trials.


Globally, SVoD subscriptions will increase by 409 million to 777 million in 2023.

Eleven countries will each have more than 10 million SVoD subscriptions by 2023.

SVoD revenues will reach $69 billion by 2023; an increase of nearly $44 billion since 2017.

The US will remain the SVOD revenue leader by a considerable amount, adding $17 billion between 2017 and 2023 to take its total to $29 billion.


China and the US will together account for more than 50% of the world's SVOD subscriptions by 2023.

In terms of sheer numbers, by 2019, China will have the most SVOD subscribers. This is despite the fact that US consumers often maintain multiple subscriptions.

China will have 235 million SVOD subscribers by 2023 compared to 97 million in 2017.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said "The US will have 208 million SVOD subscriptions by 2023; up by an impressive 76 million on 2017 despite its relative maturity. Its share of the global market will fall from 36% in 2017 to 27% by 2023."


Digital TV Research projects that by 2023, Netflix have 192 million subscriptions i.e. 25% of all the SVOD subscribers in 2023.

Amazon Prime Video will have 120 million subscribers, or 15% of the global market share. Amazon Prime Video launched in 200 countries in 2016 & had 60 million SVoD subs in 2017.

Interestingly, neither Netflix or Amazon Prime Video operate in China, so the projections for Netflix & Amazon Prime video do not factor any contribution from China.

China by itself is projected to have 235 million SVoD subscribers, of 30% of the global market share, in terms of the numbers. However, ARPUs from Chinese SVoD will be much lower than from those in the USA. n